The Toronto Maple Leafs, the 2018-2019 NHL Season, and What's Ahead

The Past:

The Toronto Maple Leafs are an organization that have been able to truly build their club from the ground up of late, and have been able to develop one of the most successful and competitive early rebuilding rosters of the modern era. They have been able to develop this franchise with an equal balance of three groups of players, which are: successful and prominent draft picks, which have flourished at the NHL level through their early stages, a handful of veterans signed to guide and educate these young players in their transition to the NHL, and keeping some of their core pieces from their 2013 Stanley Cup playoff run, to add some playoff experience for it’s future endeavours.

Through the transition of going from what is sometimes referred to as a “basement team”, to becoming a competitive, playoff-bound team for back-to-back seasons, the Maple Leafs management have been able to lock up some of their most important players, playing internal parts to the teams success, at price tags teams around the league could only wish to have.

They were capable of signing Morgan Reilly, Frederik Andersen, and Nazem Kadri all to contracts at $5M or less per year, which in this era with such a salary cap increasing each season, is almost unheard of. And to be able to do this three times, with it being your starting net minder, first pair defenceman, and top 6 centreman, is an accomplishment like no other. 

Pairing these contracts with some of the bridging deals made to some of the meat and potatoes of this team in Connor Brown, Zack Hyman, and Ron Hainsey have been more than rewarding for this Maple Leaf team, as they have given themselves every opportunity to be a competitive team for a long period of time. Being able to sign these players at these numbers puts you as an organization in a fortuitous position not having to worry about players tied down at such price tags that impede your abilities to pay out certain players as needed.

The Present:

I took some time to look into the Maple Leafs' cap situation as a team, and where they currently stand in the numbers game, with some help courtesy of CapFriendly, looking to see what sort of budget the Maple Leafs are working with, and where their money has been allocated for thus far, in terms of players. 

The Leafs as of this upcoming season have a total of $46.57M spent on 16 rostered players, and one contract with a retained salary of $1.2M (Phil Kessel), which is nothing but admirable when looking at it in terms of a big picture. With the salary cap increasing to anywhere between $78-82M for the 2018-2019 NHL season, they have over $30M in dollars to spend, which is more than almost any organization across the league.  

Now, what is to be kept in mind that many understand and have been aware of for quite some time, is that Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will be in their final years of their entry-level contract, and William Nylander is a pending RFA, meaning he will be looking to sign his extension in the near future, or if necessary, head to arbitration and find a number that works for both sides.

As these are arguable three of the Leafs most important players, that $30M budget seems to be significantly smaller after these contracts are worked out, and rightfully so. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have had unimagineable success these past 2 seasons, and although it may not have transferred to the playoffs as of yet, it should be kept in mind that these guys are only 20, 21, and 22, respectfully. They have time and years ahead to use what they’ve learned through experience, along with developing their game’s all around, to become that much more competitive and difficult to play against.

I decided to go the extra distance myself and put price tags on each of these players to the best of my knowledge, and to where I currently see them positioned, in comparison to others around the league of their skill sets and abilities. In my mind, Lamoriello did a fantastic job in signing the players he did for the Leafs, as I'm sure many teams around the league would have easily spent an extra million or two on each of the big-name players he signed, but newly appointed GM Kyle Dubas has to acknowledge and respect the players he has in front of him, in terms of skill and production, and may not have that same intimidation factor Lou brought to the table.

Looking first at centreman Auston Matthews, I compared him closest to Anze Kopitar, as Kopitar has become one of the best 200 feet centres in the league, and has been able to explode offensively, especially looking back at this past season. He was able to play at both ends of the ice extremely well, without his offensive production taking any sort of hit. He was recently signed to an 8 year/$80M contract, averaging out to be $10M/year, and although this may be a heavy price for one player, franchise centremen do not come around very often in this league. The Leafs would also have the ability to work this, and more, as Matthews' skill set is considerably better in terms of play, as they have done so well up until now in managing salaries and not overpaying for an individual player.

The next player I chose to look at was Mitch Marner. I looked at Marner before Nylander primarily because of playoff production this past season, as he was easily the Leafs best player going up against the Bruins. Marner is an extremely shifty and dynamic player, who’s vision is down right incredible, along with the ability to score and spark a power play, playing that half wall position as well as anyone. He may not be there yet, but when comparing him around the league, many nights he looks very similar and has many of the same tools as Calgary Flames winger Johnny Gaudreau. Gaudreau was signed and extended to a 6 year deal at $40.5M, which truthfully is a great price for what he brings on a nightly basis. If the Leafs were able to work something of this magnitude, or use this contract as leverage to knock the price tag down to about $6.5M/year for anything of 6-7 years, they could be in for a steal of a signing.

Finally, the most important immediate player to look at, being the RFA this summer is William Nylander. Nylander has been an effective point producer playing back-to-back seasons with Matthews, and has been able to show early consistency with 61 point totals in both full seasons with the Leafs. His recent production in the playoffs may be somewhat worrisome, as he looked almost invisible in the Bruins series these playoffs, however as earlier mentioned, he’s still young, and has had the ability to experience the playoffs twice already, at 22 years of age. His primary comparable to me would be to David Pastrnak, although Pastrnak was simply explosive in the playoffs until they were knocked off by the Lightning in 5 games, whereas Nylander was not. The Bruins was able to lock Pastrnak up for 6 years at $40M, which is at roughly a $6.67M cap hit per year. Due to his increased regular season and playoff production, the Leafs could use this opportunity to go the distance on term for Nylander, and hope his recently flawed play these playoffs could be worked into a deal at roughly $6-6.25M/year, for roughly 5-6 years. He is not at the same production as Pastrnak, and has not had the same playoff success as of yet, however his skill set and scoring abilities are not far off by any means, which could work out for the Leafs in the near future.

The Future:

If we lived in a perfect world with everything being sunshine and rainbows, this would be a fantastic position to be in for the Toronto Maple Leafs, as they would have their entire core and backbone of their Leaf roster signed to lengthy deals that suit each players’ worth. They would be able to have an effective core with all the right pieces to put together continued success season after season, and gives them the opportunity to tweak and add to the supporting cast, in order to put this team over the top and show that they can truly contend for a Stanley Cup.

Now, as it has been a topic of discussion for some time now, it is no secret that the Leafs defensive core is in need of some dire attention, and adding a big name to fill a top spot on the right hand side is an utmost priority for this organization. It would be an extremely optimal situation for the Maple Leafs to fill this position from within, as many teams have dug themselves extremely deep holes heading into bidding wars at the beginning of the Free Agent season attempting to fill the void with an outer source. As seen year after year, there are many deals that seem to put teams in such deep holes, even just after the first year (Ladd to NYI, Bolland to FLA, Clarkson to TOR, etc.), and it would almost seem senseless to look to the free agent market to fill these holes.

However, there is an extremely intriguing name this year for the blue liners, and as each game has gone on, he has continued to show why he is worth every dollar this coming July. John Carlson has stepped up immensely this year for the Washington Capitals, and his numbers have just jumped off the charts. He put together 68 points in 82 regular season games, and has averaged nearly a point a game in this years playoffs.

Now, many people may be thinking, the last thing Leafs management are looking for is more offensive production from their blue line, but Carlson has put on an outstanding display of his 200 foot game, and has really made significant changes to become a more defensively reliable player, while somehow crushing his point totals from seasons past. 

What really intrigues me about Carlson is that he can do almost everything. He's the quarterback of the first power play unit in DC, can average 25+ minutes a night playing in all situations, can play a safe and effective game in his own zone, without being overly flashy, and can really bring some extended playoff experience, should the Leafs continue past the first round in years to come. Not to mention after all of this, he is that missing right shot the Leafs so desperately need on their first pair with Rielly. 

I went ahead and looked at the Leafs salary cap situation after each rookie was to be extended, courtesy of CapFriendly, and put it together with the increasing salary cap of next season (looking to be between $78-82M), and tried to piece together a virtual contract they could potentially offer that can both work for the team, and keep them reasonably below the salary cap. What I found to be perplexing was that they have the ability to sign him at a cap hit of anywhere from $7-7.5M/year, and still sit significantly below the salary cap. 

I can understand where some would definitely second guess paying a free agent that kind of money, as the player would most likely expect some decent term on the deal, but I feel I must reinstate that Carlson has always been an effective and impactful player for the Capitals, it just became more-so noticeable in a season where the blue line looked to have weakened in skill. If players like Shattenkirk, Fowler, and others of that caliber are able to earn themselves deals north of $6.5M annually, then the case to pay Carlson in and around the $7.25M area is more than fair to argue.

With everything said and done, I estimated a contract for Carlson with the Leafs at 5 years worth about 36.25M, and if they were in contention with other teams around the league, could add the 6th year at a reduced cap hit, front loading the contract while he is in his prime. That would average out to roughly $7.25M/year for the star studded blue liner, and would give him the opportunity to play top end minutes with a young skilled parter, much like what he’s done this season with Kempny.

Another benefit to adding Carlson to the Leaf defensive core, could be the opportunity of using Carlson as a mentor for the younger up-and-coming defencemen, such as Rielly (many forget he just turned 24 this year) Dermott, and when the time comes, Liljegren. He can really help these guys off the ice, and alleviate some of the pressure from Rielly, as he himself is still young, and learning the ropes to certain things around the league. Having him help groom Dermott and Liljegren with the help of Rielly, could be extremely paramount to their future success, and play a large role in shaping this defensive core.

Another area the Leafs need to focus on is their depth centre pieces. Bozak is an upcoming UFA this coming July, and besides Matthews and Kadri, it’s almost frightening to look at what’s left.

In my opinion, bringing back Bozak for a 2-3 year deal anywhere from $3.5-3.75M/year seems more than reasonable for the Leafs, as he has continuously had some of the best face-off numbers for them, and could slot in very well as a 3rd line centre with some young speedy wingers, such as Kapanen, Brown, or even pending RFA Andreas Johnsson. It also gives them the opportunity to groom some of the younger centremen in the Marlies that may be ready in a couple of years to fill that spot, as they should certainly have their attention directed towards it.

Finally, an opinion of mine, which I can understand if it may be an unpopular one to others, was to potentially submit pending UFA Jack Johnson from the Columbus Blue Jackets a 1 year “prove-it” deal, around the $3-3.5M total.

The reason I suggest this is because of this, he is a left shot, who has experience playing on both sides in Columbus, he's only a year removed from playing over 22 minutes a night with a +23 rating, his size goes under-appreciated at 6'2 and 230 lbs, and can skate as well as anyone, and has the ability to play up and down the lineup, as seen this year in Columbus.

He went as a heathy scratch the entire playoffs for the Blue Jackets, and for periods of the regular season, after Columbus traded for Ian Cole, and Markus Nutivaara came into his own to fill a top 4 spot, so you know he is willing to prove to the league he still has many years in him to be a competitive and dependant blue liner. I personally think he would slot in rather well alongside Zaitsev, or should Dermott earn himself a top 4 spot, alongside Hainsey in a shut down pair similar to what he played in Columbus with David Savard.

If these points mean nothing else to any other Leaf fans, it can mean this, it gives the organization another year to develop and maintain it’s younger blue line pieces with the Marlies, and let them develop at a preferred pace from the organization, to let them blossom into established and integral pieces to this Leaf team. 

What’s Ahead:

GM Kyle Dubas has a lot on his plate as he enters the first of hopefully many off-seasons for the Toronto Maple Leafs, and is looking to continue the culture and shape the rest of this team to be speedy, skilled, and hard-working, much like they were this past season.

In short, if I am GM Kyle Dubas, my priorities for this upcoming off season would list as such: 

1 Sign Nylander to a lengthy extension

2. Pitch to sign Carlson to a 5-6 year deal at $7.25M AAV

3. Re-sign Bozal for $3.5-3.75M AAV to a 2-3 year deal

4. Look for potential Gardiner suitors as a trade, if any

5. Make an offer to Jack Johnson on 1 year "prove it" deal

Overall, next year is an interesting position for the Leafs to be in, as they are in the midst of some of their best players being on expiring entry-level deals, and have an abundance of cap room to work with. They can virtually make a handful of 1 year deals to fill positions if needed, and can really run up the prices on some of these players as they have all the flexibility to do so. 

Lets see what's ahead!

By: Stefano Colandrea

Sources: CapFriendly @ https://www.capfriendly.com/ , HockeyDB @ http://www.hockeydb.com/

*All information and data is to the rights of the aforementioned companies mentioned above.*